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Us 13, Boehner 10, John Boehner 9, Mara 7, Clinton 5, Biden 5, Joe Biden 4, Daniel 3, Tom Cole 3, Dr. Herric 2, Yellowed 2, Nbc 2, Eric Cantor 2, Marco Rubio 2, Dr. Jennings 2, Paul Ryan 2, Tamiflu 2, Mitch Mcconnell 2, Washington 2, New Bengay 2,
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  MSNBC    MSNBC Live    News/Business. Live news coverage, breaking news  
   and current news events with host Thomas Roberts. New.  

    January 1, 2013
    7:00 - 8:00am PST  

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try alka-seltzer. kills heartburn fast. yeehaw! another year another 11th hour deal on capitol hill. the senate plowed through the ball drop into the early hours of 2013 on their side of the fiscal cliff deal. as if your hangover isn't bad enough, time is running short for the house to act. we're just two hours away from speaker boehner reconvening that chamber to do what? we still don't know. maybe they'll vote. maybe they'll debate. good morning. i'm mara schiavocampo. happy new year on a busy first day of 2013. well, most of us were celebrating into the wee hours of new year's eve while the senate was passing a deal to avoid the worst of the fiscal cliff hangover. the bill passed by a wide margin 89-8 setting up a showdown in the house which will convene at high noon on this new year's day. republican mitch mcconnell said the process wasn't pretty but got the job done.
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>> each of us could spend the rest of the week stusing what a perfect solution would have looked like but the end result would have been the largest tax increase in american history. it took an imperfect solution to prevent our constituents from a very real financial pain. in my view, it was worth the effort. >> nbc's luke russert is live on capitol hill. good morning. happy new year to you. >> good morning, mara. good to see you in the chair. >> thank you very much, sir. so the house republican conference meets at 1:00. is that speaker boehner's best chance to sell this to republicans? >> reporter: it is. this is by no means a done deal. it did get 9 votes in the senate and one would think such a bipartisan vote in that body would correlate over to the house of representatives but it isn't necessarily the cases specially with the 112th congress. there is some consternation among conservatives for this bill for a few reasons. number one they don't like the extension of unemployment
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benefits and think that adds to the deficit. they don't think there are enough spending cuts. they also don't like the extension of the middle class tax cuts that were the president's stimulus package. also some liberals don't like the bill because they feel it gives, takes away their leverage to argue for more taxes in the future in terms of deficit deals and the rest of them would only come by cuts. so what you're going to see is at noon, nancy pelosi is going to talk to the house democratic caucus. there have been some rumors that joe biden could come up here on new year's day to sell the plan, very much like he did to the senate ds earlier this morning. you'll also see john boehner meeting with his conference at 1:00 p.m. i've been told by folks close to boehner that these -- it is by no means a done deal. he is keeping the door open to possibly amending the senate bill. now you think with the 9 votes they wouldn't want to do that, they'd want to put this to bed. but the house republicans have been known to scuttle these types of deals in the 11th hour
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before. there is some optimism on the senate side but over to the house side, if all goes to plan and they approve it all maybe we see a vote in the early evening but it could very much go into tomorrow if amended. >> you mentioned vice president biden coming back to step in again. it certainly seemed like he swoopd in at the 11th hour and helped bring this together. apparently he was very critical to these discussions. >> he's the closer. if you saw what he did yesterday, he was able to come back, talk to his senate colleagues he served with, some of them for decades, and say look. this is a really good deal, the best we can get. here are our advantages within it. democrats, though, a lot of them are worried because they think they've given away too much. they wanted to go over the cliff. they say the president should negotiate from a position of strength and it should have been the 250 number. we gave too much going up to the 400 number. what is interesting though, mara, is we get -- you take that
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250 number and you take about what 250 was in the '90s, they want to go back to the bill clinton era tax rates, 250 adjusted to inflation is about closer to the 400,000 number threshold you got for individuals. so that's what joe biden, what the white house, a lot of democrats who support this plan have been trying to sell to the liberal colleagues that, look. adjusted for inflation we did okay here. >> all right. thank you very much. happy new year. >> take care. you're welcome. >> what does the senate bill mean? can it survive in the house? vice president joe biden offered words of caution last night. >> there are two things you shouldn't do. you shouldn't predict how the senate is going to vote before they vote. you won't make a lot of money. number two, you surely shouldn't predict how the house is going to vote. >> our guest is a white house reporter for "the washington post" and jill lawrence is managing editor for politics at the national journal. thank you for joining me and happy new year. >> hi, mara. same to you. >> thanks mara. >> i want to start with you,
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david. how was the deal reached and why at 2:00 a.m., a full two hours after we had officially gone over that cliff? >> one thing we learned, mara, is that with this congress things are going to go todown t the last minute. both sides were using their leverage. there were a lot of changes last night to the bill. we haven't talked much about the sequester side but the mandatory spending cuts to the defense department and other places are pushed back for two months. there was a lot of movement on both sides as luke russert talked about on the tax issue. also on a few other examples such as the estate taxes, the white house sort of gave some ground there. allowing estates not to be taxed up to $5 million. there was a lot of movement. joe biden did come in and act as the closer and i think you would see from the house there are a lot of expectations that john boehner is going to have a lot of work to do but that he can't allow this thing to go down again like plan b did. he is, you know, his re-election possibly for the next speakership in two days so he wants to come out looking not
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only good but strong for the next round in two months. >> as david mentioned the senate punted on the sequester, the federal spending cuts scheduled to go into effect tomorrow. >> right. >> and didn't tackle entitlement reform. did they miss an opportunity? >> well, i think that opportunity was missed in the boehner/obama negotiations. there really was no time to do anything except the basics right now. and i think there's a good shot that this will succeed. i think both parties are very conscious of the markets opening tomorrow and the republicans have been through situations where they've voted down big plans and the markets have crashed. so i don't think that john boehner wants that on his head and i think that president obama's planning to blame him if that happens. there as lot of work being done to convince some liberal democrats and conservative republicans, because republicans in voting for this would have to vote for a tax rate increase which a lot of them have signed pledges saying they would never do. it's a big step but i think they'll take it. >> david, looking at house
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speaker john boehner a lot of people thought he ended up looking bad when that plan b failed. does he have the votes for this and/or could his speakership be in trouble? >> i don't know that his speakership is in trouble. during a year and a half ago during the debt ceiling debate where house majority leader eric cantor acted up and acted as spokesman for the farther right wing of the caucus, but i think here there's not a lot of suggestions that his speakership could go down but i think it is important for john boehner to reestablish the idea he is somewhat in control of his membership and that they trust him and that he is the leader here. he sort of allowed the senate to take over here really sort of gave up in some ways a few days ago and said, hey. you guys come up with something and bring it back to us. so i think there is a lot of pressure and there is going to be a lot of calling, cajoling, and making sure that this thing is going to get the votes, at least enough of a combination of democrat and republican votes later today. >> jill, this has been billed as a compromise. what did each side get and have
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to give with this bill and can either side claim victory here? >> well, i think both sides can claim victory but also both sides lost on certain respects. president obama obviously for five, six years he's been talking about this $250,000 income threshold and he did lose on that. but he did get the principle of raising rates. he didn't get the debt ceiling increase incorporated into the agreement so that is something that is going to have to come up again in two months. republicans managed to contain the tax increases to half of what president obama had asked speaker boehner for. only about $600 billion. so everyone has a chance to say they won or lost. the important thing i think here is that they all have a shot at this again in two months and so boehner can say to his republicans, you know, we have a chance for more leverage with debt ceiling debate and also the spending cuts debate that's coming up in two months. and obama can tell his people
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we're going to stand firm and go for that next $600 billion -- you know, $600 billion in tax increases. maybe tax reforms. everyone has an argument to make in the future and i think that is probably why this is going to pass. >> all right. we'll leave it at that. thank you very much. again, happy new year to you. >> thank you. >> coming up at 10:30 a.m. i'll talk to republican congressman tom cole. straight ahead, sending well wishes to hillary clinton. we'll have new details on the health of the secretary of state. keep it right here.
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we continue to follow breaking news this new year's day. the house is meeting in a short time to take up its version of the bill to pull us back from the fiscal cliff. the senate came through with the deal in the wee hours of this
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new year. now it's up to the house to come to an agreement and vote before the financial markets have a chance to react when they open tomorrow. majority leader cantor is reportedly saying that no decision on the house vote has been made yet though they expect one soon and we will likely know more after the house republican conference meeting at 1:00 p.m. we are of course keeping a close eye on all of those developments. another major story we're following this new year's morning. secretary of state hillary clinton remains hospitalized here in new york for treatment of a blood clot in her head. it is located behind her right ear in a blood vessel that drains blood from the brain but significantly is not in the brain itself. joining me live now a specialist in the treatment of such things at the university hospitals case medical center in cleveland. good morning, doctor. >> good morning. happy new year. >> thank you. you too. earlier this week a statement from secretary clinton's office said that she had a blood clot stemming from a concussion and it is being treated with blood thinners. some have noted that treating such a blood clot with a blood thinner would be unusual. can you explain that.
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>> not in the secretary's state. it appears what's been reported in the print media and on the web, i don't have precise knowledge what is going on in her case but the blood clot is in a vein that goes around the outside of the brain. >> and based on what we know about her current medical condition is there a chance there will be any lasting health effects from this or is it likely that she'll make a full recovery? >> i don't know any details about the secretary's condition. that is the majority of patients who have this condition today in the modern era. i think her physicians at presbyterian hospital should be praised for picking it up early. i know from public media that the secretary should have a full recovery. >> we certainly hope the same as well. doctors say secretary clinton did not suffer a stroke or
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neurological damage from the clot that formed after she fainted and fell in her home last month and she suffered a concussion. how common is that? >> so she didn't have a stroke and because it's not a vessel going, feeding the brain, blood going to the brain. rather, it's blood coming from the brain. and i surmise that initially when she fell with the concussion and they imaged her brain they didn't see the clot. so this may very well be a secondary response as part of the healing process from the injury to her brain, from the concussion. >> and how long would you expect her to be in the hospital being treated for this? >> well, i think once the doctors reported they wanted to stab stablize this and once they feel it's stable probably the secretary will be able to leave and be managed as an out patient. >> secretary clinton of course is often named as a possible presidential contender in 2016 and as secretary of state has logged nearly a million miles on
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airplanes traveling around the world. what does this type of condition mean to her health and level of activity going forward? >> i don't think this should have any bearing in the professional activities of secretary clinton. i know many leaders in medicine and science and industry who are -- have blood clots and are anticoagulated who are fully functional, constructive, contributing individuals. i don't think this should have any bearing. >> we are all certainly hoping for a full and quick recovery. thank you for your time. >> thank you. coming up the students who survived the sandy hook shooting will return to school for the first time since the tragedy. a look at how they're coping and what the community is doing to help them out. stay with us. # . time for the your business entrepreneur of the week. michael stat and mia are keeping an eye on their inventories.
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killed 26 of their classmates and teachers including the school's principal. the children will attend a different school and as part of the welcome back students from around the country are crafting snowflakes as a part of a winter wonderland theme. joining us now are two school psychiatrists working in the newtown area. dr. jennings the medical and executive director of family children's aid and dr. chuck herric who holds a psychiatry chair at danbury hospital. thank you for joining me. coming back from a terrible, life altering tragedy like this, what does the school do on its first day back? how quickly do you just try to go back to the lesson plans? >> i think you obviously recognize the enormity of the event that occurred. they've already been back to school since that friday so this is really a return from vacation. but i think you try to make everything as normal as possible. it's not normal obviously and there will be opportunities for discussion as children have
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questions and there will be words of reassurance. what is really remarkable though is you have to look at this in the context of the last two weeks where the entire community and the entire country has pulled together and put together resources and been very supportive. so i think newtown's ready to go back to school. it is a remarkable town. the people are remarkable. i think everybody is wanting to get back to normal and i think as much as possible under the circumstances that is what's going to happen. >> and, dr. herric, this tragedy touched so many people on so many different levels. and for the parents that was a terrifying experience. can this first day back to school also be challenging for them as they send their children back to class? >> absolutely. the parents have been affected enormously by this, perhaps even more so than the younger children. younger children take their cues from the parents.
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it's been a real challenge for them to try and modulate their own emotional reaction to this. so i think there's a lot of trepidation about returning to school on the part of the parents. and so we're taking steps to provide reassurance to them so that they can feel comfortable in helping their kids return to school and get back on the bus and reengage in their normal activities. i think the students are more ready in many ways than the parents are. >> and, dr. herric, if and when a child asks a teacher about this, why this happened, about their safety, their concerns, what can teachers do in addressing their students' concerns and fears at this time? >> well, we provided a number of resources available to the teachers. we've engaged the support of dr. steven marin who has come and helped the teachers to discuss talking points with the students.
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also the state has provided a website available to teachers and students on talking points. teachers and parents on talking points. we're also going to have the support provided for teachers in providing information and how to work with the students during that period of time. so i think the resources are there to help those teachers be able to talk to the students. and if they have any questions they know exactly where to turn to for that type of support. >> there's been a lot of activities going on in terms of opportunities for parents and children to get help with questions that they have over the last two weeks so it isn't just a new thing. this has been an ongoing discussion over the last two weeks in many different venues. >> and to that end i understand that you both had an opportunity to speak with some of the children in newtown. dr. jennings, what are you hearing from them right now? >> well, i think the children
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are not all talking about it. those that are, you know, expressing fears about a variety of things, younger children especially have magical thinking so they may think they're somehow responsible. somebody is going to come into their home, all kinds of fears of that sort. but many children are not particularly asking questions. we had over 1300 people come to the reed school crisis intervention center over the two weeks where there's activities of crafts and more, quite significantly, therapy dogs have been available every day. psycho therapy is available. and it's been a remarkable experience for children to try to get some normalitiy in parents and also an opportunity to talk about what's going on. that's been going on for over two weeks. i think people have access to
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getting questions answer ed. the county youth and family services has also been providing a lot of help. >> thank you so much for your time. i appreciate you being here with me. happy new year. >> happy new year to you, too. stay with us on a busy new year's day as we head to the white house where the president is waiting and watching just like the rest of us as the house prepares to decide what to do about that fiscal cliff deal passed by the senate. sometimes what we suffer from is bigger than we think ... like the flu. with aches, fever and chills- the flu's a really big deal. so why treat it like it's a little cold? there's something that works differently than over-the-counter remedies. prescription tamiflu attacks the flu virus at its source. so don't wait. call your doctor right away. tamiflu is prescription medicine for treating the flu in adults and children one year and older whose flu symptoms started within the last two days. before taking tamiflu tell your doctor if you're pregnant, nursing. have serious health conditions,
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to prove febreze can keep this car fresh,
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we loaded it with fast food, sweaty hockey gear, and a smelly dog cage. and parked it at a mall. in texas. for two days. then put a febreze car vent clip on the dash and let in real people. it smells good. like laundry fresh out of like the dryer. yeah. a man fresh out of the shower. nailed it. oh yeah. proof. febreze car vent clips keep your car fresh. another way febreze helps you breathe happy. right now the bill to pull us back from the fiscal cliff heads to the house. at this hour they're starting to gather in the house chamber and will reconvene in 90 minutes. we are waiting to hear if there will be a vote today. the senate approved its version early this morning with an 89-8 vote. i'll talk to a republican congressman in a moment about how he plans to vote on the bill. i'm mara schiavocampo. here's a quick look at other stories making news now. today 1 million workers in
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ten states get a bit of a boost in their pay checks. the minimum wage increases from 10 to 35 cents per hour depending on where you live. in afghanistan the timetable for turning over security from nato to the afghans is on schedule with the next phase ontrack to begin in two months. the transition will give afghan forces full control by the end of 2014. and it's a very different, very quiet scene this morning in times square on this first day of 2013. last night was a little different. about a million people welcomed in the new year with the famous ball drop in new york city. the house for now is expected to vote later today or even tomorrow on the fiscal cliff legislation. the senate passed it overwhelmingly in the early hours of the new year with a push from the vice president. for now we go to nbc's kristen welker who is marking the new year at the white house. good morning and happy new year. >> reporter: happy new year to you, mara. >> what do we know about the president's reaction to this legislation and the senate's vote? >> well, the president, officials here at the white
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house are feeling confident about the fact that the vote passed the senate with 89 votes. that means it passed with broad, bipartisan support. that sort of helps to put pressure on members of the house to get this legislation through. this is not a bill that just passed with democrats. this is a bill that had 89 votes so, certainly, house speaker john boehner can make the case when he talks to his caucus a little late other than today that, look, this did get a number of votes within both parties. of course this is not a done deal until everything is signed, sealed, and delivered. so we'll have to see what happens in the house. house speaker john bainer at 1:00 in a talk to his conference, they will voice their concerns, their frustrations. i can tell you that one of the concerns when this goes before the house is that this bill that passed through the senate doesn't really deal with deficit reduction on the level that republicans would have hoped. however, house speaker john boehner can make the argument that, look. the debt ceiling was not included in this bill. this is a fight that we can wage
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in two months from now when we renegotiate this and we can try to get the type of deficit reduction that republicans have been looking for. and the cuts that republicans have been looking for. from the perspective of the white house and the democrats, they feel as though they have a fair amount of political leverage because of that 89-vote count they got in the senate and also because this is really go time. something needs to be done and right now it's in the republicans' hands to act. that sort of puts the pressure on republicans. remember the markets open up tomorrow. they could be impacted by whatever happens in the house. >> that being said about pressure on republicans, is the white house at all worried about criticism that it's facing on the left over this deal? >> i think there certainly was some concern especially last night when the details were just coming out and a number of people on the left were saying this is not a good deal. we didn't get the tax margin we wanted. remember president obama campaigned saying he wanted to raise taxes on those making
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$250,000 or more. this legislation raises taxes on individuals making $400,000 or more and $450,000 for couples. it is not exactly what he campaigned on. you heard some voices from the left coming out and saying, they're concerned that ultimately this is going to lead to steep cuts in important programs. and you heard president obama come out yesterday and say, look. this is not perfect. part of the reason why he came out yesterday by the way, mara, was not just to pressure republicans to sign off on this deal but also to pressure democrats. sort of preempting some of that criticism that the white house and democrats wound up getting late last night when the details of this deal started to emerge. i think there was concern before the senate voted last night but certainly they're feeling confident about the fact that it did pass the senate with such strong support. >> and we will continue to keep an eye on it. good to see you and thanks. >> you too. thanks. joining me now live
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republican congressman tom cole of oklahoma, a member of the house budget and appropriations committee. he was one of the first republicans to support raising taxes on the highest income earners and also one of the first to speedway puak publicly this legislation. thank you for joining me. >> happy new year to you, mara. in the last half hour house leader eric cantor said no decision has been made on whether the house will vote today. will that decision be made when you and your republican colleagues meet at 1:00 p.m.? >> i suspect the leadership will gauge the reaction in the room and that'll be a big factor. they also have a couple other pieces of legislation they want to deal with. this may take a little while but honestly i would argue we should vote on it today. we know the essential details and i think putting this thing to bed before the markets is important. >> do you think your republican colleagues are going to try to amend the senate bill? >> i think some people probably will but i think we're very late in the process for anything to be added to what's essentially a bipartisan agreement.
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this is, honestly, i would argue, from a republican perspective, a compromise. you didn't get everything you wanted but when you can make 85% of the bush tax cuts secure for 98% of the american people, give everybody rate certainty, and basically take the revenue piece off the table in our negotiations going forward, we ought to take this deal right now and we'll live to fight another day and it is coming very soon on the spending front. >> so it sounds like you're leaning toward voting to approve the senate bill as it stands. >> i certainly would do that. no question about it. both my senators, senator coburn and senator endoff are pretty conservative guys. they supported it. i'm not too worried there is anything too dangerous there. not too much gets by either one of them. >> notably the senate bill puts the threshold for raising tax rates at 400,000 for individuals, 450,000 for couples. it permanently fixes the alternative minimum tax and extends unemployment benefits for 2 million people but does not extend the payroll tax
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holiday. it doesn't address entitlement reform and delays the sequester for two months helping set up a series of mini fiscal cliffs in the coming months. what do you like about this and what do you not like about it? >> again, i would prefer not to raise taxes on anybody. but we protected almost every american. we did it at a higher income level than the president campaigned on. and again, frankly, we've denied him i think his most important piece of leverage in any negotiation going forward. so i particularly like that part. i understand unemployment extension. i prefer, you know, a more focused effort in that regard. but we do have parts of the country where that's necessary and it's a fair compromise. the entitlement issue, just too much to deal with i think in one piece of legislation. but again, still sequester is in front of us. the continuing resolution runs out the end of march and obviously the debt ceiling. all of those things honestly are republican leverage not democratic so i think there will be opportunities to deal with
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the spending issue next year. honestly i expect that will be the dominant issue along with trying to overhaul the tax code going forward. so that's usually pretty good ground for republicans. >> now, this deal was hammered out by mitch mcconnell and vice president biden. speaker boehner was notably left out of the final negotiations. what message does that send? do you think his job is in jeopardy? >> no. look. i think the speaker has enormous support and i don't think he was left out of the negotiations at all. number one he didn't try to inject himself in it but the vice president and certainly the republican leader were very cognizant this thing has to go through a republican house. so really john boehner was a lot of mish mcconnell's leverage in this debate. so i'm quite certain not only is his position and his leadership secure but this is, you know, a measured victory. it's not a complete victory. it's a compromise. each side got something but frankly i can walk away from this one thinking we got a very good deal out of what could have been a catastrophic situation.
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the president had it in his ability to raise taxes on every single american that pays income taxes, when you can deny that and limit what could have been $4 trillion worth of tax hikes to say $600 billion that is a win not a lose. >> congressman tom cole appreciate your perspective. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> as the details of the fiscal cliff deal were coming together monday republicans were expressing their displeasure with how the president was selling the compromise. it wasn't just the words he used at a monday afternoon news conference but the optics of the president literally standing with the middle class voters that upset some of them including his 2008 opponent senator john mccain. >> as i sort out my impressions of the president's remarks as to whether to be angry or to be saddened. we have the president of the united states go over and have a cheerleading, ridiculing of republicans exercise. >> joining us now are our strats
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chris cofinas and chip salzmann. thank you for being here on this new year's day. >> thank you. so, chris, i want to start with you. are these attacks on the president's news conference fair? did that photo op with voters really risk derailing a deal? >> well, there have been a lot of things that risk derailing a deal. the president going out there and using the bully pulpit to pressure republicans if you will to come to their senses and make some kind of compromise for the sake of the country i don't think necessarily was the problem. the problem here from the very get-go is you can't get republicans to yes even when it's in their interest to say yes. and this has been i think the fundamental problem the president has had with speaker boehner from the very beginning. it's impossible to negotiate with speaker boehner because speaker boehner cannot negotiate with his own caucus. and that is the crux of the problem. i understand why senator mccain may want to try to make this a problem for the president that
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he went out there and talked about the need to get a deal done but i think he's got his focus on the wrong target if you will. >> and, chip, vice president biden certainly comes out looking almost glowing with this deal looking almost presidential. how does this burnish his 2016 bona fides should he decide to run? >> i think it helps him kind of show that he is a problem solver and was able to come in at the last moment and solve it. he is going to have a lot of natural help being the sitting vice president if he decides to run in 2016 but this kind of gives him a little bit of hey i can fix big problems and look back to this crisis and i came in and fixed it. >> and chris, john boehner definitely comes out of these negotiations looking weaker. notably he couldn't get his plan b through. does he have anything to fear on thursday when the house votes for speaker? >> no. he's got enough votes, you know, to obviously become speaker again. the problem he has is he can't control about 50 to 60 members of his caucus and so going forward it puts him in this
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impossible position. how does the president negotiate with him again when it comes to the debt ceiling or entitlement reform or immigration reform? you really can't. if nothing else, what i think you'll see over the next two years at least until the mid-term elections is a shift in terms of negotiating focus more toward the senate and trying to get whatever deal may be done on immigration on entitlements, whatever the issue may be. they're first and then shifting to the house because you simply can't negotiate with speaker boehner if he can't control his own caucus. >> we also saw senators marco rubio and rand paul vote no. chris, later today we'll see how paul ryan votes. what effect does this compromise have on senators and congressmen thinking ahead to 2016 and the possible run at the presidency? >> i think some of them -- oh, chris go ahead. >> well, i think what's happening here is, you know, anyone who is thinking about 2016 is looking at the back of their heads how these votes play out. senator rubio voted against the
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legislation with clear intentions of making this a position when he runs for president. so i will use my crystal ball and predict that paul ryan will probably vote against it as well. >> and, chip, i want to give you the last word. your take? >> yeah. i think chris is right. i think they're already looking at how is this going to affect me and the primary in 2015 in iowa, new hampshire, and south carolina, and i think unfortunately i've always thought good public policy makes good politics not vice versa. i think they have to be careful how they view that. >> all right. thank you both for joining me. happy new year. >> thank you. happy new year to you. well, coming up while we wait on the house to reconvene a look at how the markets may react if the deal gets done or if it doesn't. [ male announcer ] playing in the nfl is tough.
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watching closely. how will the outcome impact the u.s. economy both short and long term? daniel gross is a columnist and business editor. good morning. >> good morning. happy new year. >> happy new year to you too. when we wake up tomorrow how do you expect the markets to react to the deal in the senate if that is still all we have left? >> we'll get the first reactions before we wake up tomorrow. the markets open in asia and europe and we often take our cues from that. yesterday during the afternoon as the deal came into focus the stock market rail antidepressant closed up more than 1%. i think the reaction is generally favorable not just that we've averted this horrible cliff but you look at the -- in the deal the tax on capital gains and dividends which are things that investors care about. you know, they're getting off very lightly. they're not going up that much. i think overall it is quite positive. that's assuming the house passes it today or indicates that they will pass it this week. >> now if the bill goes down in
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defeat in the house and we do officially go over that cliff at least for a short time what kind of ripple effect could that produce across the american economy? could we be facing another recession? >> i think we have become so used to political dysfunction that it doesn't phase us so much anymore. if you remember back in 2008 when the house republicans voted down the t.a.r.p. bill everybody freaked out about that. the market was falling 500, 600 points. people were firing people by the tens of thousands. i think over the last few years, with the debt ceiling, with this constant gridlock, with the filibustering of everything, with all these crises we continue to manufacture, it seems like the private sector is kind of just going about its business. you look at the last couple years, the markets have generally powered ahead. people keep buying government bonds despite all our debt and the job market is improving. so i don't really see this continuing warfare in washington derailing that instantly.
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>> now, this for the moment kicks sequestration, federal spending cuts, down the road at the same time another fight over the debt ceiling looms. could the two issues scuttle any progress made on avoiding the cliff? >> i think the debt ceiling is really the move powerful and problematic. we saw this in august of 2011 when people start to raise questions about is the government actually going to pay its debt, can the government issue bonds, can it fund its operations, that's a pretty serious situation. if it gets to that point, we technically hit this debt ceiling, there are things the treasury secretary can do over the next couple months, avoiding putting payments into pension plans, things like that so we don't go over it. but at some point that has to be resolved and resolved in such a way that, you know, we are able to borrow, that people, bond investors will know they can buy these bonds and that the government will not be shutting
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down for lack of funds. i think that is the more serious of the two issues. >> from a main street perspective, we just finished the holiday shopping season and the sales numbers weren't very encouraging and a lot of analysts said one of the reasons, one of the things that impacted consumer confidence were fears over the looming fiscal cliff. is it possible that regardless of what happens with the house or with this deal that there will be an effect on consumer confidence and spending down the road? >> well, i think we are going to see in effect spending and perhaps consumer confidence just because the payroll taxes have essentially gone away. these were not part of the fiscal cliff conversations. for the last couple years people were only paying 4.2% on their first $106,000 of income. starting next week at 6.2% so someone who makes $50,000, that is an extra i think thousand dollars a year. so anybody who gets income from their paycheck is going to see a smaller paycheck starting with their first one because the payroll tax holiday expired and,
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you know, for people who are walmart shoppers who are spending what they earn, this means less income for them. so i think we are going to see that show up in consumption, retail sales to a certain degree almost immediately. >> all right. daniel gross, thank you for that perspective. happy new year to you sir. >> thank you. happy new year. now to some good news from capitol hill. almost a year after a stroke left him barely able to move the left side of his body republican senator mark kirk of illinois is expected to return to congress later this week. the 53-year-old has managed to complete an experimental rehabilitation that's been compared to boot camp. we survived the mayans' prediction for the end of the world but will we survive the fiscal cliff? stay with us. at a dry cleaner, we replaced people with a machine. what? customers didn't like it.
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president obama has been
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immersed in the fiscal cliff battle almost since election night but much political capital has already been spent. what does that mean for issues like immigration reform and gun control in his second term? joining us are david and jill. thanks for coming back, guys. the president has a lot on his plate. how much of what is ultimately able to get done depends on the outcome of this fiscal cliff fight? >> well, i guess the temptation is to say this is going to use up all the energy and fighting spirit of the white house but the president has four years, maybe two, maybe one before the mid terms, one after. i think that there's a legacy situation in play here and so i'm pretty sure that he is going to want to not leave huge debt and there is also a situation where what's good for him is also good in some respects for republicans. so do republicans want immigration reform before the next election? do they want to dig out of the hole they're in with hispanic voters? so there is some mutual
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interest. i think that gun fight is going to be very difficult but i think that's something that we're going to see, if it doesn't happen this year it may happen the next year or the year after. it is just something that i think the president will want to leave office having achieved. so nothing is going to be easy. we'll have very many brinks, you know, and a lot of fighting over principles which is not a bad thing but i think ultimately a lot of these issues will be addressed. >> david, sequestration was pushed off for two months meaning we'll have to have this fight all over again in a few short weeks. if that's the case how long will president obama realistically have to deal with gun control and immigration not to mention his plans for infrastructure and even green energy? >> that's the problem. if you remember, right after the election, after latinos came out and overwhelming numbers to support democrats and president obama's re-election, the president said one of the first things i want to do in january is immigration. let's tackle that. there was a lot of disappointment among especially the latino community about the
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president's push on that. in the first term he was dealing with other things. he said we'll do that in january. then you had this terrible situation in sandy hook elementary school in connecticut. the president said one of the first things i want to do in january, i'm going to push on gun control. vice president biden is heading this commission and is supposed to come back with recommendations. yet you see vice president biden on the hill yesterday dealing with the fiscal cliff. if you're going to have two more months of positioning on the fiscal cliff, how deep does the president go on that or does he go on immigration or gun control or energy which he said yesterday is another priority in his state of the union speech and really push? because the white house has to prioritize and right now the economy continues to be the number one priority for the foreseeable future. >> jill, if this fiscal cliff bill does get done is the new congress going to be more or less likely to work with the president on his second term agenda? >> well, the president is going to have more senators to work with, 55 as opposed to 53.
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that doesn't mean he'll have an easy time of it because republicans can block anything they want in the senate. it depends on what lessons if any republicans took from the election. i do think that the principle gap is very deep and so i'm not sure that we're going to see a kumbaya situation. but as i say, there are some advantages for republicans in making some compromises if they will see it that way. and particularly the demographic challenges. so, you know, ultimately i think the one thing to do is keep -- be realistic about the timetable. i'm not sure the president is going to get everything done that he wants to in 2013 but i would bet on immigration reform. maybe that's crazy and you'll have me back here and i'll have to say no i was wrong. i do think it's so much in republicans' self-interest. they've got some really good spokesmen on that score like marco rubio that some movement may be seen there all right. thank you for that prediction. thank you both for joining me. >> thank you.
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coming up in just one hour from now the house gets back to work. but what if anything will be accomplished? congresswoman debby wassermann shulz joins us at the top of the hour. i gave birth to my daughter on may 18th, five days later, i had a massive heart attack. bayer aspirin was the first thing the emts gave me. now, i'm on a bayer aspirin regimen. [ male announcer ] be sure to talk to your doctor before you begin an aspirin regimen. [ woman ] learn from my story.
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